Think Draw - Picture - Aug 2014 ZEBOV 932 Lost 88% Fatality

Title: Aug 2014 ZEBOV 932 Lost 88% Fatality
created on 07 Aug 14

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Comments on this picture (36):
1. Fangzzz wrote: Zaire Ebola is now in an epidemic growth stage last week 792 dead, this week 932.
2. starlight7 wrote: Very Scary!
3. Lizzi wrote: Another mystery disease, like Aids...where do they come from?
4. Fangzzz wrote: Viruses as a whole MRSA, SARS, Marburgs, Ebola, AIDS all do best in areas where there are many organisms - orphanages (AIDS), rest homes (hospitals and rest home), salt licks or food sources (Ebola/Marburgs), animal farms (H1N1, Sars)
5. Fangzzz wrote: Aug 19 - dead 1350. Increase previous 140, now 418. If this follows exponential growth the next report will be 5000-8000. Prayers for Africa.
6. Fangzzz wrote: Sept 12 - dead 2,400, growth slowing.
7. Fangzzz wrote: Oct 14 - 4,447, growth nearly; rate predicted at 1.3, First US FatalityCase in Dallas. At this point with winter on the way 3 weeks water supply just wise, as would be food, bleach, gloves and N95 masks on the safe side. I expect 2-20 US cases by Nov bas
8. Fangzzz wrote: US #s = 3 as 2 nurses confirmed in Dallas.
9. Fangzzz wrote: 1 case Marburgs Uganda, 80 in quarantine, not atypical to previous years trends.; range of Dallas ebola watch extended to Ohio due to confirmed victim traveling out of state.
10. Fangzzz wrote: 10/23 - 4877 deaths - rate staying steady appx. 62-63 daily. Mali has first case making 6 W. African countries. New watch in NY due to Dr returning from W. Africa. Flu season starting in US along with Entrovirus D86 - contract tracing will be difficult
11. Fangzzz wrote: 10/25 NY case confirmed ebola, pending confirmation NJ case.
12. Fangzzz wrote: 11/1 - 4,951 grow dropped 9 daily. Pending in Vietnam and OR.
13. Fangzzz wrote: 11/11 - 5,177 daily rate 22.6 rising. Current rate early 80%, late 30%.
14. Fangzzz wrote: 11/23 - 5,689 daily rate 42.6 nearly doubled rising.
15. Fangzzz wrote: 11/28 - 6,943 recalculated daily rate 117.1 from 11/11 - largest growth rate to date.
16. Fangzzz wrote: 12/18/14 - 6,915 is new reported total - how did that go down?? because they are starting to subtract deaths from "cured" countries from the total. My total based upon individual country counts is 6,990.
17. Fangzzz wrote: 12/18 - even with that there is some playing with the numbers going on. Known 2 in US died, but the CDC's table only shows 1 for the US. Also infection rates have changes as "active ebola" only is being charted rather than including non-symptomatic viru
18. Fangzzz wrote: 12/21/14 - 7,588 (since Nov growth about 28 daily)
19. Fangzzz wrote: 12/29/14 - 7,693 daily rate 62. So rate has bumped up - I believe this is a factor of number playing rather than real rates. Rate is consistent with previous "60's" daily rate.
20. Fangzzz wrote: 12/30/14 - 7,879 (source WHO)
21. Fangzzz wrote: 1/6/15 8,219 daily rate 134. Doubled growth rate never good, yet holding thoughts as this may still be back log of old numbers.
22. Fangzzz wrote: 1/12/15 8,377 daily rate daily rate 22. Confirms that previous number was a back log error and most likely this week underreported. The average of the 2 previous rate is 78 which is a safe guess of current growth rate.
23. Fangzzz wrote: 1/21/15 - 8,641 daily rate 29. Hate how politics are part of the numbers reporting. State of the Union stated ebola ebbing - 29 is higher than 22 - NOT.
24. Fangzzz wrote: 2/2/15 - 8,994 daily rate 13. Media is reporting an upsurge, but as we see over a month the rate is dropping.
25. Fangzzz wrote: 2/15/15 9,380 daily rate 29.6 the number are high enough now to have concern about mutation.
26. Fangzzz wrote: 3/23/15 10,299 daily rate 36.23 Part of this high number is finding a group of dead that was hidden in a mine. Liberia recorded its first new case in more than 2 weeks, while in Guinea cases are increasing.
27. Fangzzz wrote: 4/9/15 10,984 daily rate 40.29 - disturbing that rate is slowly creeping back up.
28. Fangzzz wrote: 4/9/15 or? 10,587 daily rate of 18 which is significantly lower. Difference? African vs. CDC source. Time to keep a watch. Either we are nearly over or another pocket found.
29. Fangzzz wrote: 4/27/15 10,842 daily rate from last high is an unrealistic negative, daily rate from last low 14 - this sounds realistic. However, note the in country numbers still are running higher than the CDC totals. I'm staying with CDC to be consistent.
30. Fangzzz wrote: 5/6/15 11,007 daily rate 16.5 at this rate expect to see an end by 1st week en July.
31. Fangzzz wrote: 5/15/15 11,089 daily rate 8.2 - this is getting exciting. With current decay rate and the 42 day period to declare free - July 22 looks to be the end of this. There is still a 6 month window after that to guard for sexually transmission cases.
32. Fangzzz wrote: 5/31/15 11,162 daily rate 4.56. Ok continuing to go down, but at slightly a slower rate - so with decay rate by July 8 should be on last victim with August 16th being the wrap up after 42 day. We still have to be concerned about the 6 month wait for sex
33. Fangzzz wrote: 7/10/15 11,253 daily rate 2.275. My previous predictions where off by double. Right now we are at a little over 60 people a month, with Guinea and Sierra Leone being the last places. I have been following death rates, but there are more cases. Sadly we
34. Fangzzz wrote: 7/24/15 11,289 daily rate 2.5 - slight rise.
35. Fangzzz wrote: 9/6/15 11,306 daily rate .38 monthly rate 11.59 people. Nearly to the point where we can start counting infected people for the final count down to done. When monthly rate is less than 10, will switch to adding case numbers.
36. Fangzzz wrote: 11/22/15 3 clustered cases in Liberia. As of 12/11/15 no new cases. Think we are on final wrap up. Let's cross our fingers for the next 30 days.